Real probabilities
Not just a tip: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win for every match, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Oct 19 · next round soon
Football predictions from a model that shows its work
Win, draw and loss probabilities for every upcoming match, from a model retrained every night on 1,210 past games — with its full track record in the open.
- Win, draw and loss probabilities
- Updated every night
- Every past call published
1210past matches learned from
0upcoming matches predicted
50%picks right (20 settled)
1league covered
Why Alpha Sports Lab
Everything it does, plainly
No marketing magic — these are the things the service actually does.
An ensemble model
Elo ratings, Dixon–Coles, gradient boosting and more, weighted by how well each did — retrained every night.
Fresh every morning
New results are downloaded and the predictions recalculated daily, before the day’s matches.
A public track record
Every settled match the model called before kickoff is on this page — misses included.
Goals markets
Expected goals, over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score probabilities on the plans that include them.
Your own data feed
A private JSON link with every prediction — for your spreadsheet, bot or app.
Predictions
This week’s matches
One prediction is open for everyone — members see them all, with the probabilities behind each.
No fixtures are listed for the coming days — between rounds the next predictions appear as soon as the fixtures are published.
Track record
The last 12 settled matches, each predicted before kickoff. Over all 20: the model picked the result 50% of the time, the bookmakers’ favourite 60%. Nothing is left out.
| Match | Score | Our pick | Market favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham v Coventry 19 Oct 2026 | 3–1 | Home · 46% | Home |
| Nott'm Forest v Arsenal 18 Oct 2026 | 0–1 | Away · 55% | Away |
| Leeds v Man United 18 Oct 2026 | 1–1 | Home · 43% | Home |
| Brighton v Crystal Palace 18 Oct 2026 | 5–0 | Home · 52% | Home |
| Bournemouth v Sunderland 18 Oct 2026 | 2–0 | Home · 48% | Home |
| Newcastle v Aston Villa 17 Oct 2026 | 0–1 | Home · 43% | Home |
| Fulham v Hull 17 Oct 2026 | 1–0 | Home · 39% | Home |
| Man City v Ipswich 17 Oct 2026 | 3–2 | Home · 87% | Home |
| Brentford v Liverpool 17 Oct 2026 | 1–2 | Home · 47% | Home |
| Everton v Chelsea 17 Oct 2026 | 0–2 | Home · 47% | Away |
| Coventry v Newcastle 12 Oct 2026 | 4–1 | Away · 51% | Away |
| Liverpool v Man City 11 Oct 2026 | 0–3 | Away · 42% | Away |
Statistical estimates for information only — not betting advice. 18+ where betting is legal.
Pricing
Simple plans, honest limits
Pick the size you need. Every plan runs on the same servers.
Matchweek
The next seven days of predictions
$3/ week
$12.86/ month
≈ $12.86 a month
Billed $3 every week
What’s included
- Win / draw / loss probabilities
- Every match 7 days ahead
- Expected goals, over 2.5, both score
- Private JSON data feed
- Updated every night
Season pass
Every match, with the goals markets
$9/ month
$9/ month
Billed monthly
Billed monthly
What’s included
- Win / draw / loss probabilities
- Every match 7 days ahead
- Expected goals, over 2.5, both score
- Private JSON data feed
- Updated every night
Analyst
Two weeks ahead, plus your own data feed
$19/ month
$19/ month
Billed monthly
Billed monthly
What’s included
- Win / draw / loss probabilities
- Every match 14 days ahead
- Expected goals, over 2.5, both score
- Private JSON data feed
- Updated every night
Secure checkoutCard payments through our payment partner.
No auto-renewalA plan simply ends with its period.
Every result shownOur record is public — hits and misses.
One accountEverything you buy, in one place.
Prices in USD. Plans run for their period and renew only when you buy again.
Compare
Every plan, side by side
Only the allowances change between plans.
| Plan | Matchweek | Season passMost popular | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $3 / week | $9 / month | $19 / month |
| Per month | ≈ $12.86 | $9 | $19 |
| Days ahead | 7 days | 7 days | 14 days |
| Goals markets (xG, over 2.5, both score) | |||
| Private data feed (JSON) | |||
Getting started
Up and running in minutes
- 1Pick a plan
Pay once for the period — nothing renews by itself.
- 2Sign in
With the e-mail you paid with, on “Your account”.
- 3Read the numbers
Every upcoming match with its probabilities, updated each morning.
How accurate is it?
About as accurate as the bookmakers’ favourite — sometimes a little better, sometimes a little worse. The track record on this page is complete and unedited, so you can check it yourself before you buy.
Is this betting advice?
No. These are statistical estimates for information and entertainment. No model can make betting profitable on its own. If you bet, you must be of legal age where you live — and only ever stake what you can afford to lose.
Which competitions?
The leagues listed in the live numbers above — more are added as the lab grows, and your plan includes every one.
When are predictions updated?
Every night: new results come in, the model retrains, and every upcoming match gets fresh numbers.
What is the data feed?
A private link that returns your predictions as JSON — handy for spreadsheets and bots. Keep it secret; you can replace it on your account page at any time.
What happens when my plan ends?
Your account page and feed stop showing predictions. Buy again any time — the same link and account work again.
Ready when you are.
Pick a plan — you can move up or down at any time.